Thursday, October 16, 2008

Overall Well-Being

It seems that the world is falling in. Is it really? Grand and fear striking similes and metaphors abound: an economic national security emergency; a financial tsunami; the Great Depression 2.0.

Firstly lets take a look at personal psychology. The term recession seems to not have the same psychological association as depression does, however they are of the same nature. If you take a look at what is driving stock-markets and investors helter skelter, experts repeatedly say that the behaviour does not fit with fundamentals. Also, a little bit of good or bad news tends to go a long way. People are literally in a manic emotional state.

Take a look at the behaviour pattern of financial executives. Essentially they have for years been prepared to take on increased (even absurd) risk for the sake of additional profits. The downside possibility would know doubt have been in the back of their minds, but ignored. Some of these financial executives decided to hedge their bets by taking out insurance: credit default swaps. However the contagion consumed this cautiousness because the people giving out insurance ignored the possibility that they might have to pay out an insurance claim. It is like giving out fire insurance with the idea that money can be made because fires never happen. Insurance brokers however argue that they were covering financial products that will never get burnt, let alone destroyed, by fire. To this there is a very simple response. Why on earth would companies actually pay out millions and billions and trillions of dollars for insurance cover if there was no credible underlying risk? The very fact of the existence of a voluminous credit default swap market is proof that financial executives knew, but in general ignored, the underlying risk that mortgage-related debt products would go bad.

What is the psychological pattern operating in any gambler (or addict for that matter)? The gambler focuses their mind more and more on winning, and ignores the common-sense knowing that the odds are stacked against them. In the back of their minds they know they can’t win, but they have to ignore this. They ignore this because they need to focus on winning. They need to focus on winning because there is an underlying emotional issue that they cannot face. When the gambler inevitably loses, they get a little taste (or wave) of the overwhelming emotional sea that they dare not jump into. In time the addict or gambler can develop the skills, understanding, and most importantly awareness, to tackle what lies hidden in the basement of their mind.

When people in the developed countries the world over accumulate massive levels of debt they do so out of compulsion - this refers to consumer (credit card) debt and household debt, business debt, and government debt. If when I am sitting in my little granny-flat staring at a furniture-less wall, I go crazy. Hence what I do is pick up one of the credit-card brochures lying around, I go out, and I buy a plasma television. Now on those lonely nights I simply stare at the blaring screen in order to both occupy and numb my mind. A zen monk on retreat simply stares open-eyed at a wall. In time (and in fact in a very short time) the wall becomes the mirror to see what lies just beneath your usual waking mental state. A zen master may well watch television, but has seen all the shows on their inner-tv.

No doubt up to a certain level the basic stuff of modern life contributes to wellness of being. However the golf tripping, spa resort frolicking financial executives that are the pillars of financial deconstruction are addicted to indulgence. I recall one such executive saying that he recently had the worst week of his life. Now he was not talking about the state of his bank account. He was talking about his emotional state; he was talking about his very own personal depression.

Am I getting you lost here?

Economic growth is the very foundation of modern society, so it seems anyway. If the world goes into a global recession, or perhaps a global depression, why is this occurring? Here it might help by recalling that strategic tipsters backed the African continent (and not Asia) to become the great emerging economic giant of the 20th century. Rather than prospering, Africa however slipped into decades of violence, destruction, and genocide. Asian countries on the other hand became the developing potential superpowers.

Why were the tipsters wrong? Africa had the potential to prosper. It had the natural resources, the people, and the technology (especially if it harnessed the technology gains from other parts of the world) to create a prosperous society. At both an individual and collective level, the ability to create a vibrant and harmonious social web gave way to violence and destruction. At both the individual and collective level, a vast body of emotional discontent (rage) that was lurking in the unconscious, came to the surface. In a domino effect one persons rage can infect a village, a village can affect a region, a region a country, a country a continent.

The theme of a spreading emotional darkness is juxtaposed historically by the moral fabric of society. The minds of people have the intellectual understand of what is essentially right and wrong ingrained in them. What can make a moral code deeper is the understanding, rather than just the repetition, of what is right and wrong. What can foster this understanding is the nurturing of human consciousness. A meditator instrinsically develops the capacity to distinguish between right and wrong, between good and bad.

An individual that cultivates their own consciousness does two things. Firstly, as mentioned, an understanding develops about morals, about ethics, about values. Secondly the more a person becomes conscious (aware) the more they create a separation from what they are observing. And when a person can detach themselves from the emotion that is going on inside them, they are less involved or caught up in this emotion. They can see that for example the anger, although remarkably unpleasant, is a passing emotional state. Society can provide the tools to help people express this emotion in a safe and perhaps even creative (rather than destructive) way. Traditional meditation already provides the tools to observe the emotions if they are not excessively strong for any particular person at that time.

America is considered a modern superpower. It is also projected to slide into recession, and is fighting to stave off a repeat of the Great Depression. However if I were to travel to America, I would still see all the basic stuff that creates a galloping economic growth rate. All the basic stuff is still there! There are all the raw materials are still there. All the people are still there. All the technology that explains how to put the raw material together to create a great society is still there.

While all the people are there, what is their individual and collective mental capacity? Some of the intellectual geniuses of Wall Street no doubt had high IQ’s. However some of their decisions showed profound lack of intelligence and foresight. Also, now that they can not preoccupy their mind with financial work, some of them will be hitting the drink to stave of their personal depression. If I were to test the IQ of an unemployment Wall Street financial wizard the morning after a binge, I think the results would be pitiful. In order to ignore his or her own personal issues, this person has gone down the road of financial destruction that reverberates around the country and the world - at financial, economic, and social levels.

If any group of people go down the path of collective greed, then when they finally see the possibility that this may end, fear strikes. Ultimately the fear is that they have to face what they have been avoiding: themselves. Deep down, every single person has a sense of what is in their unconscious. When a magnetic and collective wave of fear occurs, the end result is a collective depression: for example the Great Depression.

Whether or not the current global recession turns out to be global Great Depression 2.0 is primarily based what is in the collective unconscious: the sum total of all the stuff we carry around inside us that we are not able, or are not willing, to see.

On a brighter note, it does not have to turn out this way. As mentioned there are tools that can be employed. Also, society is currently geared in a way that puts the preeminent focus on gross domestic product (GDP) and economic growth. A counterpart needs to be developed that acknowledges the deeper aspects of what it is to be human. Sure life would be (and is) tough without the basics of life that many people take for granted: hygienic food, sanitized water, adequate shelter, sewerage removal systems, and education and health care facilities. However beyond this an increase in material well-being does not necessarily equate with an increase in overall well-being - and often leads to an inverse relationship: obesity for example.

The indicator of GDP should have a counterpart called OWB (Overall Well-Being). OWB essentially explores the subtleties of what it is to be human: what it is to be civilized, and what it is to be spiritual or religious. When for example an economic recession or depression is looming, GDP may well spike. However OWB will take a serious nosedive. After a little while people dust themselves off after the crash, forget about their share losses, and thank themselves that they are still alive. OWB starts to improve. People start developing the urge to reconnect with friends who are also hiding in their own personal depression. The urge to create a little bit out of the mess around them rekindles the spirit, and GDP starts its long steady move towards the next precipice. However this time, if society places more focus on factors other than just material or economic well-being, the fall won’t be so bad. Also, there are skills that people can develop that emphasise and contribute to overall well-being. People can learn how to express and even watch the emotional stuff that stunts their creativity, their intelligence, and their spirit.

The focus on economic growth and consumerism becomes a self-fulfilling tragedy. Emphasise the material, and people focus more on the material to avoid the immaterial emptiness. Filling peoples hearts and nourishing their souls cannot be without the values and freedoms that are the cornerstone of any modern and democratic society. However this is just the foundation. A great tower is not built simply by putting foundations on top of the foundation. Such a construction simply collapses under its own weight. The modern social structure will become a highrise as the emphasis moves towards empathy and compassion towards fellow humans and the world at large. Examples of this are the focus on workplace and occupational health and safety; acknowledging and addressing mental health needs; and confronting the degradation of the planet from pollution. The upper floors of the grand towers of post-modern society are not burdened with concrete and steel. They are filled with flowers and mirrors and singing and dancing.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Pilot Flies Blind

So the global financial crisis is global. That appears to be one unchanging conclusion in recent weeks. We have key organisations and figures hammering out a global solution over the last few days in Washington. The International Monetary Fund has met, and has denounced the G-7 proposal to the crisis as weak and ineffectual: essentially a statement of ideals rather than clear, pragmatic actions. The reason for the ineffectual outcome can be seen simply by looking at Europe’s collective response. In a nutshell countries have such diverse opinions and interests that genuine agreement can only be at the vague, fundamental level. Admittedly consistency at the most fundamental level - that of ideology - has been thrown out the window.

At least this is a better situation than in Zimbabwe. There, the two main political organisations finally agreed to specifics to move forward. The downfall came when President Mugabe blatantly ignored the agreement and went his own tyrannical way. If I wasn’t such a sceptic I would say that Robert Mugabe has taken some political lessons from the recently appointed Pakistan president - Asif Ali Zardari. Make a few deals and than double-cross your way to power!

With either mixed responses or vague principals at the collective level, something of importance is to look at key individual players in this game. So if there is a chief pilot, who would it be? Unfortunately the answer is the US Secretary Treasury Hank Paulson. I say this because the crisis comes from the US super-power. Also, the US president is too unpopular and distrusted to take the wheel.

So how is the chief pilot going? Firstly, for a week or so he faced everyone from the congress to the media waving a finger-pointing clenched fist and shouting We need this financial rescue package Now! So with built expectations on this immediacy, when he finally gets his way he says that it will take some weeks (and months) to work out the maths formula to spend the money to save the country and the world Now! I would say that the pilot crashed on that one.

Hank managed to survive this crash. What did he do next? Well he decided that in any case the great plan that he devised wasn’t such a good idea after all. Hmmm…after a great deal of ‘trust me I know what I am doing’ and $700 billion US dollars later, he decides to do what he said all along was a bad idea: take an equity stake in banks and other financial institutions by injecting capital. Well I don’t have a golden parachute, but from what I have seen, any parachute will be just fine.

Friday, October 3, 2008

America: The Road Ahead

All eyes looking at the road ahead are popping out with dollar signs emblazoned. The big question is will the bail-out package, now passed and signed into law, actually pass the test. However there has been a tunnel vision in the last couple of weeks: the apocalypse is here and it is big and we gotta fix it now!

Look at what has just happened to the financial crisis across the Atlantic. Instead of a government brokered (and government insured) deal with Citigroup, Wachovia has received a considerably better offer from Wells Fargo.

What are other people saying about the big picture? Paul Krugman, a columnist for the New York Times advocates the formation of a Works Progress Administration, although he is not so optimistic about this becoming a reality. Also on the issue of where to from here, Congressional House Representive George Miller explained that there’s a pent-up demand…for infrastructure.

Several recent infrastructure failings in the United States have tragically caused loss of life. In August 2007 the interstate bridge over the Mississippi river collapsed in Minneapolis. A couple of weeks earlier a century old steam-pipe exploded in New York city.

Developed countries throughout the world are reaching the stage where their developments are nearing their used-by dates. Further, a lot of large-scale construction has been done without an emphasis on maintenance and replacement (including de-commissioning). Inaccessible piping is a good example. The cost and work involved in maintenance, de-commissioning, or replacement is substantial and therefore not very interesting – to anyone, whether it be engineers or government officials.

Importance needs to be given to incorporating design for maintenance. Also, in the inevitable event of infrastructure (old buildings for example) being declared unfit for repair, design for demolition becomes another critical factor - ease of removing old, dilapidated buildings for example.

The financial rescue package will slow, but not stop, the steady descent of the American economy. Other factors will determine just how much cushion there is when the economy hits rock bottom.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Prophet Ross

Yesterday was going to be a relaxing day. Knowing that the financial quake from the failed US Wall St bailout was of tsunami forming proportions, you might be inclined to ask why. The answer is that I am blessed enough not to have any finances to lose. So what went wrong with my day? The answer is Prophet Ross.

Prophet Ross is (or should I say was) known in the general Australian community as Professor Ross Garnaut. Doctor Garnaut is an Economics professor acting as special advisor to the Australian government in climate-change. Though when he hands down his reports, all activity usually grinds to a halt, his latest report was delayed for a couple of hours as the tsunami coming across the Atlantic took centre stage. Nonetheless, the latest report was delivered.

Eagerly I awaited listening to an expert in economics explain the nuances of the road ahead on this hot issue. It would make a nice change from the boring rhetoric that has been making the rounds…or so I thought.

After a little introduction the Professor of Economics explained that if I didn’t take him seriously I would be ‘haunted till the end of time’. I was taken aback. Being haunted all the eternal years ahead did not seem so appealing. However he had my attention now. Fortunately he quickly went on, in his capacity as the most senior expert on the issue of climate-change (with respect to economics) in Australia, to say that there was a ‘saving grace’. Well hallelujah!!

Prophet Ross is born, or should I say born again. Admittedly ‘the end of time’ sounds reasonably intelligent and professional, but ‘haunted’? Though I don’t mind a laugh at blatant stupidity, it is important to note that the word ‘haunted’ has distinctly religious undertones. And then to come up with a ‘saving grace’. Wow this guy Prophet Ross really is a climate-change crusader.

On the international scene however Prophet Ross cannot compete with Al Gore. Al has been rallying the troops for some time now, and since he did not seek the US presidency I have been wondering what will become of him. However a few days ago, Al Gore raised the climate-change crusade ante by making a call to arms. He said that it was now time for civil disobedience.

The question is, how can tomorrow be a better day? Hopefully Rudd the Dudd will achieve advaita (non-dual) bipartisanship with Saviour Malcolm. In this case Prophet Ross and Saviour Malcolm can join forces with Al War Gore. That would make for an interesting tomorrow.

So there you have it. My planned day watching other people lose their hard earned money was thwarted by karma, or should I say the devil? Tomorrow never comes but let me see what sort of today tomorrow is.